It’s Not the BTC Halving (Analyst)


Bitcoin’s price has failed to capitalize on a recent rally above $30,000 and the price has withdrawn to more or less where it was trading three months ago.

Source: CoinGecko

This has turned the overall market sentiment bearish, at least according to the popular crypto fear and greed index, which is currently in fear territory.

And while Bitcoin’s price is currently stagnating, forecasts and speculations on when it will produce another vicious rally are running rampant. One prediction comes from the popular cryptocurrency analyst that goes by the X handle dave the wave. 

It’s important to note that the Bitcoin halving is coming up at some point in 2024. This has historically been a tremendously impactful event in terms of supply and demand dynamics. The process will see the BTC supply cut in half, essentially halving the supply of newly minted BTC that could hit the market. It’s been a bullish catalyst in Bitcoin’s relatively short economic history.

For a detailed breakdown of the effect of Bitcoin’s halving on its price, please check our recent article.

Dave the wave, however, thinks that the big break isn’t going to happen in 2024. Instead, he sees that year as a period when the price will strengthen toward the previous highs, but the actual breakout will come later.

Though I think BTC halving will play an increasingly insignificant role ias the market matures, it may serve yet as a stimulus again in the interim.

Price has previously exploded to the upside when the monthly peak close has met the lower band of the logairthmic growth curve (LGC).

This would suggest a strengthening of price to previous highs in 2024… with the breakout in 2025.

Source: X

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