Can we go south now?. Today we take a look at the #EURJPY… | by Paul Mihalev | Coinmonks | May, 2023


Paul Mihalev

Today we take a look at the #EURJPY pair. On the monthly chart, the pair rose above the December 2014 level at the very end of April. May began with continued growth, but today the sellers have come to their senses and are trying to turn the pair around. Based on the first two days of trading, it is difficult to judge the future prospects, but if the break of the old level was used to attract additional buyers, and as you understand, the number of sellers has significantly decreased above the level, then it is quite possible that the further path of the pair lies in the southern direction. From the end of 2006 until September 2008, the pair was already above 150 yen per euro, but if you remember, it was in 2008 that the mortgage crisis began in the United States and in the autumn of that year the pair literally fell to 114. In times of crisis, people try to keep their money in safer assets. If we are to believe the forecasters of the coming recession, this is another factor in favour of an early fall.

Let’s move to the daily chart. It is worth noting the price action prior to the last trading day of April — the pair traded in a tight range without breaking above the previous local high of the 16th of October at 148.397, it is possible that the volume of buyers’ orders was insufficient for large sellers, and moreover, near this peak, additional sellers’ orders appeared, so that the momentum on the 28th not only forced these “following” sellers to close out their trades, but also attracted new buyers. As a result, there was a significant amount of buying in the market that sellers could use as counter-buying. Very often we see something similar at the end of a move in any direction — this phenomenon is called a climax and actually completes the move. Although it is unlikely that the price will move in the opposite direction at the moment, as soon as the price falls a little, new buyers will enter into transactions and the price will fluctuate until the buyers realise that the power is not on their side. Let’s see if the chart supports these conclusions.

Finally, let’s turn to the hourly chart. After a strong impulse on Friday, yesterday’s weak growth, today’s movement during the European and American sessions, which have already started, tends to the south. So far, yesterday’s daily candle has not been swallowed up by today’s, but there is not much left. Tomorrow’s Asian session is likely to continue to fall, but then you will have to see what happens, as tomorrow’s buyers may try to take revenge. If today’s move is the start of a new downtrend, then some may take advantage and go short. We should not forget that the buyers have not given up yet and can spring a big surprise.

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